Qualcomm’s CEO, Cristiano Amon, has made a bold prediction that Arm-based processors, led by the company’s Snapdragon X series, could become the dominant chips in the Windows PC market before the end of the decade. This statement aligns with Arm CEO Rene Haas’ expectation that Arm processors will comprise 50% of the Windows PC market within five years.
Key Takeaways:
- Qualcomm’s CEO predicts Arm-based Snapdragon chips could capture over 50% of the Windows PC market by 2029.
- Some laptop manufacturers (OEMs) anticipate 40-60% of their total sales to be Arm-based Windows PCs within three years.
- The success of Arm-based PCs hinges on their ability to offer compelling AI functionality, performance, battery life, and address privacy and security concerns.
The Rise of Arm in Windows PCs
During a Q&A session at Computex 2024, Amon expressed his agreement with Haas’ prediction, stating that some OEMs anticipate capturing an even larger market share within a shorter timeframe. He noted, “Some OEMs are talking about 40 to 60% of their total sales within three years [for Arm-based Windows PCs].”
The potential for Arm processors in the Windows PC market is significant, with the possibility of more than half of laptops from certain OEMs featuring Snapdragon chips instead of the current x86 processors from AMD and Intel.
Challenges and Competition
However, this vision is not without challenges. The success of Arm-based PCs, often referred to as “Copilot+ PCs,” hinges on their ability to offer a compelling alternative to traditional x86 PCs, addressing concerns related to AI functionality, privacy, and security. Additionally, the market will likely see competition from AMD and Intel, who are also developing powerful neural processing units (NPUs) for their CPUs, making it a race not just about Arm.
According to a report from Reuters, Arm Holdings aims to gain more than 50% of the “Windows PC market” in the next five years, as Microsoft and its hardware partners prepare to launch a new batch of computers based on the British firm’s technology.
The Battle for Performance and Battery Life
In the short term, the battle for market share will be in emulation and battery life. If the Snapdragon can deliver native-level performance for Windows software and offer superior battery life, it could pave the way for Arm’s dominance in the Windows PC market. However, the future remains uncertain, and it feels too early to call it as definitively as Qualcomm, Arm, and others seem to be doing.
Intel’s recent announcement of its Lunar Lake CPUs, which can run in an 8W fanless mode and are claimed to be more efficient than AMD’s 7840U processors with double the TDP, suggests that the x86 giant is not taking the Arm challenge lightly.
In summary, while Qualcomm and Arm are bullish on the prospects of Arm-based processors in the Windows PC market, the road ahead is fraught with challenges and stiff competition from established players like Intel and AMD. The ultimate winner in this battle will be the one that can deliver the best combination of performance, battery life, and compelling AI features to consumers and businesses alike.
